Interesting to see you start this series. You might find some of the work in the EU Field Guide of interest - that takes a complexity (not a systems thinking) approach to creating human sensor networks for both real time situational assessment and micro-scenario generation. That of itself is a switch from foresight in normal use, to creating capability to better understand where we are and what might happen next. It also uses diverse networks to generate potential unintended consequences rather than assuming that can be done.
The more radical work is just emerging, building on constructor theory in Physics to measure the energy/time nature of constraints in order to get better indications of the future, both counterfactuals and also the general principle that what ever has the lowest energy gradient is likely to win. Wendy Schultz and I are planning a workshop in the new year on that.
The third area is the switch from anticipation to anticipatory triggers, but that is for another day
Nice to see you on here, Dave. Thanks for dropping by and taking the time to read. I appreciate it.
The EU Field Guide is definitely among my key reference materials in this exploration. As is the recent Cynefin book. The chapter by Steve McCrone and Ian Snape seems particularly relevant for this particular series, but I welcome any other pointers.
Can you recommend any good sources on the more radical work on constructor theory you referred to? And please let me know when you and Wendy are running the workshop. I'd love to participate.
Will advise on the Wendy session - but aren't you west coast? Estuarine Mapping is the simplified form of this paper which was a joint authored one. The current version is in Cynefin.iohttps://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/10/1/7/pdf
Thanks James, I enjoyed reading this and I agree there is a real need to rethink our collective practice in this space. I thought I’d share the immediate thoughts that came to mind from reading this and which I need to explore further! (1) Embedding a systems thinking approach - having a more mature understanding of the operating environment and broader system we work in will help us get better at the ‘situational vs contextual’ conversations and hopefully the ‘what role should I play in this bigger picture’? type questions. (2) Future risk profiles - building in unintended consequences from possible solutions in a way that helps us better understand future risk can help us think through the ‘quick fixes’ more deeply.
Hi Craig, thanks for reading and sharing your reflections! I really appreciate it.
On your first point, I agree. And one of the avenues of exploration I want to pursue in this series is what becomes of our practice once we venture from a knowable landscape into an unknowable one, the latter being characterised by complexity, i.e. in conditions where uncertainty is a persistent state that cannot be overcome via pursuit of more information, more analysis, more scenarios, etc.
On your second point, can you say more on this? My instinctive reaction, without knowing more, is that when we're talking about a complex adaptive system, unintended consequences only become knowable once they have already occurred and by definition may be unforeseeable. Risk management, on the other hand, requires foreknowledge, and is aimed at controlling the environment for one's own advantage. But if we're contending with a complex adaptive system, then both foreknowledge and control are elusive. So there's a tension there that I'd like to explore. My suspicion is that what is required is a dispositional shift away from the desire to know/control, and toward one of improvisation and experimentation in response to an evolving system. I'm jumping the gun to future posts here, but my suspicion that the work of Ilkka Toumi is probably going to be instructive here (see http://www.meaningprocessing.com/personalPages/tuomi/articles/ForesightInAnUnpredictableWorld-extract.pdf)
Interesting to see you start this series. You might find some of the work in the EU Field Guide of interest - that takes a complexity (not a systems thinking) approach to creating human sensor networks for both real time situational assessment and micro-scenario generation. That of itself is a switch from foresight in normal use, to creating capability to better understand where we are and what might happen next. It also uses diverse networks to generate potential unintended consequences rather than assuming that can be done.
The more radical work is just emerging, building on constructor theory in Physics to measure the energy/time nature of constraints in order to get better indications of the future, both counterfactuals and also the general principle that what ever has the lowest energy gradient is likely to win. Wendy Schultz and I are planning a workshop in the new year on that.
The third area is the switch from anticipation to anticipatory triggers, but that is for another day
EU Field Guide link here : https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC123629
Nice to see you on here, Dave. Thanks for dropping by and taking the time to read. I appreciate it.
The EU Field Guide is definitely among my key reference materials in this exploration. As is the recent Cynefin book. The chapter by Steve McCrone and Ian Snape seems particularly relevant for this particular series, but I welcome any other pointers.
Can you recommend any good sources on the more radical work on constructor theory you referred to? And please let me know when you and Wendy are running the workshop. I'd love to participate.
Will advise on the Wendy session - but aren't you west coast? Estuarine Mapping is the simplified form of this paper which was a joint authored one. The current version is in Cynefin.io https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/10/1/7/pdf
I'm south-east Australia based. An hour outside Melbourne in Gippsland to be exact.
Thanks for the links!
Will have to be virtual then
Thanks James, I enjoyed reading this and I agree there is a real need to rethink our collective practice in this space. I thought I’d share the immediate thoughts that came to mind from reading this and which I need to explore further! (1) Embedding a systems thinking approach - having a more mature understanding of the operating environment and broader system we work in will help us get better at the ‘situational vs contextual’ conversations and hopefully the ‘what role should I play in this bigger picture’? type questions. (2) Future risk profiles - building in unintended consequences from possible solutions in a way that helps us better understand future risk can help us think through the ‘quick fixes’ more deeply.
Hi Craig, thanks for reading and sharing your reflections! I really appreciate it.
On your first point, I agree. And one of the avenues of exploration I want to pursue in this series is what becomes of our practice once we venture from a knowable landscape into an unknowable one, the latter being characterised by complexity, i.e. in conditions where uncertainty is a persistent state that cannot be overcome via pursuit of more information, more analysis, more scenarios, etc.
On your second point, can you say more on this? My instinctive reaction, without knowing more, is that when we're talking about a complex adaptive system, unintended consequences only become knowable once they have already occurred and by definition may be unforeseeable. Risk management, on the other hand, requires foreknowledge, and is aimed at controlling the environment for one's own advantage. But if we're contending with a complex adaptive system, then both foreknowledge and control are elusive. So there's a tension there that I'd like to explore. My suspicion is that what is required is a dispositional shift away from the desire to know/control, and toward one of improvisation and experimentation in response to an evolving system. I'm jumping the gun to future posts here, but my suspicion that the work of Ilkka Toumi is probably going to be instructive here (see http://www.meaningprocessing.com/personalPages/tuomi/articles/ForesightInAnUnpredictableWorld-extract.pdf)
Looking forward to Part 2!